The script is easily set up and inherently true. In 2020, Europe must import 4 out of 5 m³ natural gas – a big demand. In the meantime, natural gas imports by existing pipelines already rises to over 300 billion m³ in 2009. Russia distributes by far, almost 50%, Norway 30% natural gas to Germany. At the moment, natural gas production, despite echoing controversial arguments, is not for scarce and neither in 2020; but the existing distribution infrastructure is not prepared for rising demands after 2020. Pipeline projects such as (1) Baltic sea pipeline (North stream), (2) South East Europe pipeline (South stream), and (3) Nabucco pipeline are under construction or close to call. Even smaller projects, i.e. Galsi (Algeria-Italy) and Medaz (Algeria-Spain) may step in.
Considering the Russian-Ukrainian natural gas dispute in 2008, which, in fact, climaxed in a total delivery stop of Russian gas to Western Europe for several days, LNG may help to fill the gap and beyond. Despite its global impact and importance and with yearly growth rates of up to almost 10%, comparing to 2% natural gas pipeline growth rate on a yearly basis, LNG imports verifies significantly in Europe. In 2008, virtually none LNG was directly imported in Germany (of course, due to lacking LNG receiving terminals). In France, LNG imports cover almost 30%, in Spain over 70% of all natural gas consumption. Even Great Britain, recently re-opening and expanding its receiving capacities, hits the magical, starting, 1% marker. These figures indicate that LNG play and will play a pivotal role in securing natural gas supply widely over Western Europe, except Germany? Not quite; in times of international, border-crossing, pipeline infrastructures, Germany’s natural gas companies purchase free slots (regasification capacities) on existing LNG receiving terminals all over Europe, i.e. Huelva or Barcelona in Spain, in Italy, Croatia or even Great Britain. Without the restraint of lacking receiving terminals in Germany, LNG will be bought, stored for a certain time, regasified and distributed – where demand is crucial.
Worldwide some 20 base-load LNG plants in 16 countries can be identified in 2008; roughly 60 LNG receiving terminals, with the majority in Japan, define the lower end of the LNG value chain. Its if firmly believed that in 2020 almost 30% of Western Europe’s natural gas consumption will be supplied by LNG. With the existing natural gas infrastructure and strategy, which is strikingly homogeneous divided by a small group of companies, small, locally produced LNG/LMG/LBG solutions may find a hard time to compete.
