Why LNG?
From today’s perspective, the world need 50% less CO2 emissions until 2050, if the CO2 concentration of 450 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere shall be kept below this threshold. Conservatively speaking, between 2008 and 2012 the amount of global Internet traffic is going to be quadrupled. Energy, particularly electricity is the overall key to provide constant and reliable access to the world’s information grid – the Internet. As information service providers, powering the Internet by their massive server farms, electricity reliability is crucial.
Many self-commitments had been given to reduce carbon emissions. From tomorrow’s perspective, innovative information services need innovative yet reliable electricity supply, easing the need for atomic or even coal-fired power plants. A sound combination of renewable energies may be the answer. Intermediately speaking, low-value-gas-to-LNG application might help to step forward into this direction. LNG, short for Liquified Natural Gas, is being produced by cooling down gases (natural gas, biogas, landfill gas and even flare gas) to -163 deg C, where is take only 1/600th of its original volume at atmospheric pressure. From today’s perspective, only base-load LNG production facilities, being provided by sub sea natural gas sources, are of interest, simple because the conventional LNG value chain involves upstream and downstream players with long-time commitments, both economically and technologically.
Stepping down in size, small-scale LNG infrastructures may help to decentralize energy provision, reduce substantially carbon emissions, and outline the way to a complex renewable energy system. Also, they inherent a substantial innovation potential due to the fact that a substantial amount of players will be involved. To access the Internet in the future we need innovative energy provision.
Situation Information Technology
Information technology providers have a tremendous interest in cheap, but yet reliable electricity to provide energy to server farms, powering the internet, production lines, providing the necessary tools for surfing the grid, or anything else related to our information driven society. As seen today, supporting renewable energies, e.g. solar industry, seems very attractive, simple because our sun does not write any energy bills.
The core idea is always the same: Electricity, provided by renewable energies, shall be cheaper than electricity produced from coal power plants, running constantly on base load. They produce tremendous amounts of CO2, being released into the atmosphere; simply because commodities which inherent a lot of carbon produce a lot of CO2. Why not investing into CO2 catching technologies, but common sense tells a different story. What about atomic power plants? Point taken, but due to the sheer scope, delivery time and investment necessary they may simply scare off people, companies and investors. People want something new, small and lean, compared to the existing massive infrastructure related to coal and atomic power.
Nuclear Lazarus?
Nuclear power already, in 2008, provides almost 20% of the world’s electricity production, with no CO2 while running. Although it is believed that its share will fall – to just 10% of production within the next decade. In discussing nuclear power as a means of creating electricity, it is important to keep in mind that nuclear power plants are nothing more than very complicated and potentially hazardous machines for boiling water, which creates the steam used to drive turbines. As with coal, nuclear power stations are very large in terms of space and electricity production – up to 2 GW. With a starting price of 2 billion USD apiece they are expensive, too.
Because they are large, and many factors relating to safety must be considered, the permitting process for a nuclear power plant can take up to a decade. Lead-times, from planning to commissioning, of up to 17 years are required, prior to first production of electricity. Worldwide, at the moment, 34 projects are under construction with 12 being planned and constructed for over 20 years. In terms of new projects, 6 plants in China, 6 in India and 2 in Europe can be identified. These projects and with respect to the average lead-time, electricity production eventually will start in 2025.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change needs to be stopped within the next 15 years to slow down any further increase in earth’s temperature on a global scale. In economic-speech, with a 17-year gestation period before any power is generated, and even longer before any return on investment is seen, nuclear power is nothing for impatient investors. These factors, as much as the concern about safety, disposal of waste and bombs, whenever nuclear power is mentioned, are leading to the only argument in favour of nuclear power: zero CO2 emissions.
While running on constant base-load, no emissions will be noted from nuclear power plants, but in general, CO2 will be emitted upon the production of uranium or any other nuclear substitute being used as fuel. Within the nuclear fuel chain, between 30 to 120 g CO2 per produced kWh electricity will be emitted. By comparison, natural gas power plants emit almost 150 g CO2 per kWh.
The majority of new nuclear power plants are being built in the developing world, where a less tight-laced bureaucracy and greater central control make things easier. China is planning to commission two nuclear power plants per year for the next twenty years, which from a global perspective, speaking CO2 emission reduction, is highly desirable, for 80% of China’s power now comes from coal, which in term emits more than 300 g CO2 per kWh. Providing the uranium necessary to fuel these reactors will be a challenge, for world uranium reserves are not large, and at the moment around a quarter of the world’s demand is being met by reprocessing nuclear weapons. With uranium on scarce, CO2 emission released within the nuclear fuel chain will increase. The very essence of nuclear power as a low emission technology will be compromised.
Yes, We Can
The change towards new, leaner technologies is giving a new boost for investors. Today, a turnover of roughly 1000 billion USD is made referring to sustainable energy provision, soaring to 2000 billion USD in 2020. In 2007, companies obtained 2 billion USD from investors in order to spin their ideas in to valuable products. As we undergo this radical shift, we should re-examine the scope of energy security with respect to information technology. Between 2008 and 2012 the amount of global Internet traffic is going to be quadrupled. Huge amount of data needs to be stored in real-time and being accessible at any time. To store this huge amount of data the world is relying on servers, which, in fact, rely on electricity.
Since the dawn of the Internet in the mid-1990s we cannot imagine how we ever lived without it. Statistics indicate that, in 2007, 1.3 billion people were online worldwide, almost 3.5 times as much as in 2000. Two out of five Internet users are located in Asia and the number is strikingly increasing. In 2007, more than 270 million computers had been sold; an increase of 13% compared to 2006. More than 70 million computers were sold in Asia. Behind every search, direct deposit, YouTube request and rant on a blog is a data center, or server farm crammed with machines called servers and, behind them, a power plant.
To run these servers, located at special server farms, electrical energy and backup systems are required to guarantee non-disruptive service at any time to anybody. Globally, in 2007, an estimated 2 percent of worldwide carbon emissions come from producing the electricity that powers the worldwide server farms, or about 300 million tons CO2 a year.
As the amount of users and content is increasing, the amount of servers is increasing by a yearly rate of 8%. Due to the development of the Internet, most server farms are located in the US and in Europe. With almost 70 million users from Asia in 2007 and an estimated population of almost 3 billion people, future server farms will and must be located in Asia. As mentioned before, Asia is investing majorly in coal and atomic power plants to cope their steadily increasing energy consumption.
Key factors that are known to influence the set-up of server farms until today are:
- The availability of large volumes of cheap electricity to power the data centers.
- Today and future commitments to carbon neutrality, which has sharpened its focus on renewable power sources such as wind, hydro, and solar power.
- The presence of a large supply of water to support the chillers and water towers used to cool the data centers.
- Distance to other data centers. They are in constant need of lightning-fast response time for their searches, and prizes fast connections between the data centers, speaking of low latency in connections between facilities.
- Tax incentives.
In response to the above mentioned key factors some may argue that:
- There might be no more cheap electricity as being provided today from existing atomic power plants, existing coal fired power plants and common natural gas power plants – electricity prices will certainly increase in the nearby future.
- Commitments to carbon neutrality could be a perfect match with low-value-gas-to-LNG applications. The produced LNG will be transported and regasified to power plants, which may provide server farms with electricity.
- Partly, LNG could provide cooling duty for the server farms upon regasifying, taken from the LNG.
- Expanding server farms may create new markets and increase the need of diverse energy supplies.
- Most pressing, as CO2 trading activities become mandatory in the nearby future and hence any mitigation of CO2 is driving future energy provisions.
Each server, powering the Internet, at the server farms produces up to 1 kW of heat by consuming up to 1 kW of electricity. This in terms implies substantial cooling by air-coolers or water coolers, supplied by nearby rivers. It gets hot enough that for every dollar spent to power a typical server, another dollar is spent to keep it cool.
Flipping The Coin
In the future, all information technology providers will struggle to find adequate supply of reliable electricity, if not supporting nuclear power or power produces from coal. As for the LNG value chain; today, gas pre-treatment and energy efficient liquefaction technologies, distribution, storage and regasification of LNG at the satellite stations with an adjacent power plant are state-of-the-art. Flipping the coin – decision making – may be an option; and with the coin already in the air, speculations will certainly rise which side to find atop. Doing business as usual or small is beautiful, towards a more diverse and leaner energy provision to power the Internet of the future?
Further Readings
The energy nightmare of web server farms (by Jane Anne Morris)
